The Case Against Your Favourite Backtest — Invest Like the Best
The Case Against Your Favourite Backtest
Why most published factor results survive replication but not implementation.
A methodical conversation about the gap between a factor that replicates and a factor you can actually run money in. The guest separates three failure modes — data-snooping, capacity, and the trading cost that only appears at size — and argues the third is where most of the decay happens. The last section is practical: what to demand from a research note before allocating to it.
Replication is a low bar; implementation shortfall at size is where published edges die.
Capacity is a property of the trade, not the signal — the same factor is fine at $50m and gone at $5bn.
Ask for turnover and realised spread, not Sharpe, when evaluating a strategy.
Most "regime change" in factor returns is crowding showing up with a lag.
Companies & tickers
- MSCI
- AQR Capital Management
Topics
- Factor investing
- Quant
- Research methodology
- Trading costs
- Capacity
Original summary, written from the episode transcript. Full episode page