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Forward Guidance

Blockworks

2 episodesMacroRates

Macro, rates and liquidity — the plumbing behind the price action.

Show website
Forward Guidance
with Priya Raghunathan

The Front End Is Doing Something Strange — Forward Guidance

Forward Guidance1 hr

The Front End Is Doing Something Strange

Front-end pricing has decoupled from the dot plot — the guest explains why that is rational.

Hosted by Ada Kowalczyk

Summary2/4

The episode works through why the market is pricing a path that differs materially from the committee’s own projections, and argues this is a reasonable response to asymmetric risk rather than a disagreement about the economy. It covers term premium decomposition, why the market prices cuts it does not expect, and what the options market says about the distribution.

The market prices a distribution; the dot plot prints a median. The gap is mostly that, not disagreement.

Front-end options show a fat left tail — cuts priced as insurance, not as a base case.

Key takes3/4

Term premium has rebuilt from a genuinely abnormal starting point; that is normalisation, not stress.

The labour data, not the inflation data, is what would actually move this pricing.

Mentioned4/4

Topics

  • Rates
  • Federal Reserve
  • Term premium
  • Options
  • Monetary policy

Original summary, written from the episode transcript. Full episode page

Listen on AppleListen on Spotify
Forward Guidance
with Sam Ferreira

Liquidity Is a Behaviour, Not a Number — Forward Guidance

Forward Guidance1 hr 5 min

Liquidity Is a Behaviour, Not a Number

Why every popular liquidity aggregate measures something different from what it claims.

Hosted by Ada Kowalczyk

Summary2/4

A critical tour of the liquidity indicators that circulate on financial social media — net liquidity, reserve balances, the TGA and RRP — and what each actually measures. The guest is not dismissive: the argument is that each is informative about a specific mechanism and useless as a general market predictor. The last twenty minutes build a more honest framework.

Net liquidity charts conflate three unrelated mechanisms and inherit the noisiest one.

Reserve balances matter for funding markets and almost nothing for equity valuation.

Key takes3/4

The TGA moves money between accounts; the transmission to risk assets is indirect and slow.

A useful liquidity framework starts from who is forced to transact, not from a balance-sheet aggregate.

Mentioned4/4

Topics

  • Liquidity
  • Central banking
  • TGA
  • Reserves
  • Market plumbing

Original summary, written from the episode transcript. Full episode page

Listen on AppleListen on Spotify

That’s everything published so far.

Forward Guidance · Goldfish