Daniel Okonkwo

Copper Is a Macro Asset Now

Grid capex, scrap tightness and why the copper curve stopped behaving like an industrial metal.

Hosted by Colin Marsh

Summary2/4

The conversation makes the case that copper has been repriced from a China-growth proxy into an electrification-and-grid story, and that the forward curve now carries a structural premium it did not carry five years ago. Most of the episode is spent on supply: grade decline at existing mines, the permitting timeline for the projects everyone points to, and how much scrap can realistically fill the gap. The guest is more bearish on near-term demand than the consensus and still structurally bullish.

Grade decline at the top ten mines is doing more to tighten supply than any new demand source.

Scrap responds to price with a six-to-nine month lag, which flattens spikes but does not prevent them.

Key takes3/4

Grid capex is the most durable demand leg — it is budgeted years ahead and is relatively price-insensitive.

Near-term Chinese demand is softer than the price implies; the curve is pricing 2029, not next quarter.

The trade expression matters: the spread has better risk-reward than outright length here.

Mentioned4/4

Companies & tickers

FCX
SCCO
GLEN

Topics

Copper
Commodities
Electrification
Supply chains
Curve structure

Original summary, written from the episode transcript. Full episode page

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Odd Lots1w

with Daniel Okonkwo

Odd Lots54 min

What a Tariff Actually Does to a Supply Chain

Tracing one component from order to landed cost to find out who really pays.

Hosted by Nell Hartigan & Owen Pryce

Summary2/4

Rather than argue about incidence in the abstract, this episode follows a single industrial component through quoting, shipping, customs and final assembly, and puts a number on each step. The result is messier than either side of the debate assumes: the split shifts with contract length, substitution options and who holds inventory risk. The guest is good on the difference between the first year and the third.

Incidence in year one is mostly the importer; by year three it has migrated into price and sourcing decisions.

Contract length determines who eats the cost far more than bargaining-power arguments do.

Key takes3/4

Substitution happens at the component level long before it happens at the supplier level.

Inventory positioning ahead of an announced tariff distorts trade data for two to three quarters.